Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.042905 1.223807 1.426739 1.671295 1.958132 2.284048 2.682728
2024-10-06 0.801933 1.054554 1.371631 1.799125 2.361139 3.075897 4.055922
2024-10-13 0.611245 0.871522 1.225346 1.742073 2.478973 3.494618 5.005645
2024-10-20 0.486677 0.740838 1.109391 1.683653 2.558466 3.845517 5.891783
2024-10-27 0.398899 0.642403 1.015682 1.630719 2.622536 4.166306 6.765757
2024-11-03 0.348961 0.590995 0.980914 1.656304 2.802412 4.678708 8.005089
2024-11-10 0.325813 0.577798 1.002626 1.772970 3.142750 5.491481 9.857103
2024-11-17 0.296423 0.548466 0.991569 1.829734 3.385797 6.170487 11.577799
2024-11-24 0.265217 0.510507 0.958891 1.841126 3.546244 6.721859 13.145373
2024-12-01 0.235570 0.470564 0.916139 1.825891 3.651912 7.182610 14.604163
2024-12-08 0.211111 0.436781 0.879775 1.816558 3.765484 7.670328 16.183556
2024-12-15 0.193051 0.413031 0.859388 1.835463 3.936932 8.293107 18.127988
2024-12-22 0.169382 0.374783 0.805623 1.780014 3.951310 8.608699 19.499560
2024-12-29 0.164670 0.376757 0.836573 1.911964 4.391963 9.895921 23.225674
2025-01-05 0.145104 0.342639 0.784471 1.851045 4.391716 10.214825 24.792940
2025-01-12 0.128094 0.311797 0.735201 1.788926 4.378541 10.500788 26.325603
2025-01-19 0.113680 0.284939 0.691254 1.732658 4.370315 10.795863 27.926115
2025-01-26 0.106001 0.273413 0.682004 1.759853 4.571578 11.625178 31.008210
2025-02-02 0.104323 0.276767 0.709508 1.883871 5.037595 13.180952 36.236246
2025-02-09 0.099290 0.270653 0.712355 1.944213 5.346213 14.378708 40.698188
2025-02-16 0.092394 0.258531 0.697983 1.956324 5.526709 15.264899 44.441955
2025-02-23 0.084958 0.243811 0.674630 1.940127 5.625994 15.944458 47.705126
2025-03-02 0.078509 0.230934 0.654531 1.930206 5.741902 16.687728 51.279715